International Panorama: In the end, Iran was not like Venezuela

The most radical leadership of the regime, from the supreme leader on down, repudiated and sought to sabotage that agreement carried out by President Hasan Rohani, one of the most audacious leaders of the moderate wing of the Islamic Revolution who, as Kissinger defined, understood that it was time for the country “advance from cause to nation”.

Rohani assumed that with a broad agreement that would reconnect Iran with the world would corner these internal enemies and modernize the country. On the contrary, it was these who ended up triumphing and celebrated when Trump, in his first government, deactivated the pact in 2018, under pressure from Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The regime had strictly complied with that agreement because it had enormous support from the youth, who are the majority in the country, and also because it included the release, as it happened, of part of the Iranian money frozen in Western accounts. The economy has always been a dead end drama for the Islamic Revolution.

But that was not the pact that the Guardians of the Revolution preferred, because it condemned them to disappear and deactivated their defense structure, which they based on the nuclear program as a deterrent weapon. Let us remember that The Vienna agreement transferred enriched uranium to Russia, a signatory of the pact. Iran had to set the conditions, they argued. They had to wait a decade of tensions, the worsening of the crisis in the Middle East and two wars to obtain another agreement formulated on their terms. This is what they have largely achieved now with Trump.

In principle, the war liquefied the historical internality in the regime in favor of the most radical wings. The country is now governed by a younger generation, less concerned with moral symbols than to maintain a strong and bloody iron hand in the style of classic dictatorships.

The new agreement, which is much worse than the one hammered out by the Democratic leader, leaves the discussion on the nuclear issue in a nebula and forward, sustained in the promise of “never develop” atomic weapons. It also places under this future umbrella the fate of the 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60%, unnecessary for peaceful purposes.

The 14 points of the memorandum are almost all US obligations. They include a commitment not to intervene in Iranian internal affairs, the liberalization of its oil trade and an end to the conflict in Lebanon, which Washington must manage the rebellious Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu. We can assume that the rush to sign it early in France on Wednesday during the G-7 was due to fear that Israel would somehow backfire.

The document adds the commitment of financing of up to US$300 billion for the reconstruction of the country, an initiative in which Trump’s companies will surely be involved; the release of the regime’s frozen funds around the world, some US$ 100 billion (“It’s your money” Trump justified when the paper was published), and the end of international sanctions.

The pact avoids any mention of missile power (““They have to have them because others have them.”, Trump explained again condescendingly); and adds a lock on the last point so that the agreement is approved by the UN Security Council, in order to prevent any future war action. It also reduces concern about uranium enrichment, central to the speeches so far from the White House and its Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. (“It’s a little difficult when others have it… you have to use common sense a little”Trump explained once again with Rubio at his side).

The Republican president, who absurdly always compared Iran to Chavista Venezuela, and now had to give in spectacularly, It will be very difficult to show any victory in this design. The regime cleverly used two complementary tools to ensure the result: it strangled the world economy and especially the North American economy with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and bet that this crisis would pressure Trump to accept the final demands given the urgency imposed by the November electoral scenario.

Vali Nasr, an academic at Johns Hopkins University and a specialist in the region, summarizes the outcome in an initial error consisting of Washington “ignored the institutional resilience of the Persian state and its ability to project asymmetric power. Iran demonstrated that it is not an isolated actor, but a crucial node for the energy stability of Eurasia.”

But just as the magnate did not measure the consequences when embarking on this adventure without a clear record of his purposes and methods to achieve them, now falls into another abyss. Iran appears as the winner of a conflict that pitted it against the United States and Israel, and that image is especially serious among North American allies in the Arab world who they were left helpless. The White House struck down alliances with the Gulf monarchies, forced to analyze how they should coexist with a more powerful, arrogant Iran with enormous autonomy.

Although Trump gave in at all levels in exchange for the long-awaited opening of the Strait of Hormuz to alleviate the energy crisis and the cost of gasoline at the pumps in your country, The destination of that step is also not clear. The Iranians play with words and affirm that they will not charge any tolls, as Washington demands, but yes tariffs for maritime services. Tehran (in a joint plan it says it is drawing up with Oman) maintains that keeping the strait safe, clean and free of floating mines stemming from the recent conflict costs money. Therefore, they argue that they will charge for the “environmental and safety services” provided to ships.

This entire scenario is where China looks closely. Also for Beijing, this war and its outcome have meant a paradigm shift. It is transparent that The People’s Republic has been behind the scenes of this agreement moving its satellite Pakistan as a mediator. A fact that should also worry the Iranian autocracy.

Trump traveled to the Chinese capital between May 13 and 15 for a summit with his colleague Xi Jinping, whom he asked to intervene in this dispute, attentive to the political and especially economic partnership that the Central Empire maintains with the Islamic regime. “He offered,” stammered the Republican leader. Barely a month after that meeting, on June 15, A ceasefire was announced that gave way to these final negotiations.

Days before and during the May summit, there were intense diplomatic movements in Beijing, including key meetings between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Chinese authorities. A central point on which the two capitalist powers of the era coincide isn the need for the liberation of navigation in Hormuz, as it was before the war. 45% of the oil and gas imported by China travels through this passage.

But the concern of the People’s Republic has another height. Energy strangulation produces a reduction in global growth that erodes the accumulation project of the Asian Empire, which presumes that it will be the global hegemonic power in just a couple of decades.

Iran will not be able to challenge this central partner. The strait will remain open, with some conditions. Trump will talk about victory, but nothing will be the same. This war demolished the reputation of the United States, that of this president and that of his cabinet, and is already detonating the Republican ruling party. There will be news.