Unusual silence in the Gulf, propaganda in Iran – and the fear of a ground raid: a picture of the situation

The campaign against Iran is reaching a critical crossroads, when alongside tense silence on the ground, the regime’s propaganda apparatus in Tehran is trying to transmit control from the shores of the Strait of Hormuz. In the last day, there was a sudden stop in the American attacks, while the Iranian security system is preparing for the most threatening scenario for them – a ground commando raid on the nuclear facilities hidden in the depths of the earth. snapshot

After two consecutive weeks of intense and extensive attack waves, the United States military did not carry out attacks on Iranian territory tonight. The motive behind this stop is unclear at this time, and there has been no official announcement from Washington.

At the same time, complete silence was also maintained on Tehran’s side, and no missile launches towards the Gulf countries were detected since last night. It is not clear if this is a temporary pause for the purpose of the re-evaluations, or perhaps it is a diplomatic signal against the background of the feverish discussions in Washington.

While the peace was maintained in the area, Iran’s state television broadcast a special field report from the shores of Jask district and the port city of Bandar Jask, adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz – the strategic shipping lane connecting the Sea of ​​Oman to the strait lanes.

The Iranian reporter, who reported in Persian from the coastline, made sure to emphasize the military and civilian presence in the area: “The brave military personnel of the Islamic Republic are securing and protecting these waters. We saw here the loyalists of Iran and the residents of the district volunteering to patrol and protect these beaches. We thought there was no better place than this to show you the effort and resilience of the people of this country,” he said in an article by the Iranian propaganda mouthpiece.

During the report, the reporter turned to present the daily routine of the local residents as well: “This morning we also spoke with the local fishermen. Most of the fishermen stated that there may be some concern about the situation, but what gives them confidence to continue with their lives, fishing and their daily routine – is the faith and trust they have in the armed forces of our country, that they will not give even one of the country’s land to the enemy.”

As part of the show of muscle, the reporter reported on the statement of the spokesman of the Revolutionary Guards’ Marine Unit, according to which in the last 24 hours, warning shots were fired at four ships that tried to pass through the southern region of the strait on an “illegal and insecure route, and they were forced to change their course.”

However, behind the shows of force and the belligerent statements on the beaches, Tehran is mainly troubled by a completely different kind of threat. According to a report in the New York Times, American officials point out that the facilities in the Mount Machosh area are carved very deep into the rock – beyond the penetration range of the most powerful and heaviest conventional bombs in the hands of the US military.

Based on the heavy damage caused to the Purdue uranium enrichment facility in previous attacks, the Iranians realized how deep the American bombs were able to penetrate. As a result, they are convinced that the deeper subterranean halls at Mount Machosh are completely protected from conventional air attack.

However, in the Iranian security system, a serious concern is developing about a different type of operation: in Iran, they fear that the US may carry out a ground commando raid on the compound, during which special forces will enter and destroy the equipment and facilities from the inside. According to American intelligence, the Iranians are not taking any risks and will already significantly increase the ground forces in the Mount Mosh region to prepare for such a scenario.

The New York Times reports that US intelligence agencies estimate that the new supreme leader of Iran, Mujtaba Khamenei, is interested in promoting the acquisition of nuclear weapons much more aggressively than his father, Ali Khamenei. Although Khamenei Jr. never publicly called for the development of nuclear weapons, it is estimated in the West that he and the extremist elite rose up around him, after the US and Israel Eliminated many of Iran’s previous leaders, striving to develop advanced nuclear weapons.

However, American sources make reservations and emphasize that all the intelligence on Mujtaba was gathered even before the outbreak of the war and before he actually took office. According to the same sources, although Tehran has not yet actually renewed the nuclear program, Iran has taken active steps to preserve its nuclear assets after the American attacks on its central facilities last year, as well as during the cessation of hostilities in the current war – and, among other things, moved sensitive equipment to the protected compound at Mount Machosh.

While such a transition may be a first step to restoring the enrichment capacity in the future, American officials estimate that at this stage Iran’s main goal is simply to preserve the equipment and keep it out of the range of American bombings.

In the background of all these developments, President Donald Trump yesterday convened a dramatic discussion with his senior advisers and members of the American cabinet to decide whether to escalate the attacks against Iran. At this point, it is not clear what the decision was made at the hearing, but the silence recorded tonight may be the calm before the storm.