Replicating US warships: China’s strategy to invade Taiwan

“China He is preparing several scenarios. They know that it is very difficult for a peaceful unification to occur, because that would mean that the Taiwanese want to join Chinaand the majority wants to maintain the ‘status quo,’” adds Aquino.

For Pagán, “the recent large-scale purges in the Chinese army seem to distance the possibility of a short-term military intervention, although, and there is no doubt about this, a hypothetical declaration of independence from Taiwan (which is not on the horizon) would immediately trigger Beijing’s military reaction.”

A replica of Taiwan

All these replicas of airplanes and warships join the models, built for a decade at the Zhurihe training camp, of the presidential office of Taiwan and the rest of the ministries, where Chinese soldiers practice an eventual assault on Taipei, the capital, and how they would take control of the city and the entire island. Added to this is the copy of the Su’ao naval base, an important maritime military center located on the northeast coast of Taiwan.

Long-range weapons and new artificial intelligence systems are tested in these constructions, something in which Xi Jinping’s government has been investing a lot of budget.

The replicas chinas They have also been extended to the US bases located in Japan, such as Yokosuka, which would undoubtedly have a key participation in an eventual conflict, taking into account that more than 55 thousand North American troops are stationed in Japan and from these bases many of the planes and ships that would go to the aid of Taiwan.

American involvement, however, remains an enigma, but leaving Taiwan at Beijing’s disposal is also not in Washington’s plans since the island has been strategic in the balance of the global geopolitical board, even though it has lost diplomatic weight in recent years, especially due to the overwhelming international pressure of China.

“Taiwan It is home to the largest semiconductor factory in the world. If it becomes controlled by Chinathey are going to have control of the most advanced semiconductors. Then there is the location of the Strait of Taiwanwhich concentrates 20% of the world’s global maritime trade. And then there is the problem of the South Sea of China and the islands that are there, that give open change to China to get to Guam, which is US territory,” Aquino clarifies.

American ambiguity

In the midst of this scenario of uncertainty, it cannot be taken for granted that the United States will come quickly to defend Taiwandespite the interests at stake, much less so under the Trump administration.

Regarding the island, the United States maintains a strategic ambiguity since it is not in its plans to cross the red line that for Beijing implies control of Taiwan. Something that Xi Jinping made known to Trump during the meeting they had last May and that he will surely emphasize again at the summit next September.

“The main doubt that exists about the participation of the United States in a hypothetical conflict in the Strait of Taiwan is, paradoxically, whether such participation would finally take place. The United States has traditionally refused to clarify what its decision would be, as part of its policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’. If it participates, the military simulations carried out indicate that there is a possibility that Washington will be able to thwart the military intervention. china on Taiwanbut that its success is not assured and that, in addition, it would have a high human and economic cost,” asserts Pagán.

“It is not known whether the United States would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan because they maintain that strategic ambiguity. Trump has not given any implicit or explicit statement on the matter. Meanwhile, China he prefers to prepare for that contingency,” says Aquino.