Marine Le Penremains clearly ahead in voting intentions for the first round ofFrench presidential electionswhile behind himJean-Luc Melenchonis losing ground, to the benefit ofEdward Philippe e Raphael Glucksmann. This is what emerges from a survey byBigmade forBfmtv e The Tribune.
According to the survey, the candidate ofNational Gatheringis in the lead with 34%-35.5% of the preferences of those interviewed. Melenchon, leader of the radical left ofInsoumise Francehowever, does not appear to be maintaining its momentum. In a scenario with Philippe as the sole candidate of the centrist bloc, Melenchon would stand at 14% (two points less than in July), while the former prime minister would reach 17% (+0.5 points) and go to the run-off. In fourth place, Raphael Glucksmann, who recently announced his candidacy through the primaries organized with theSocialist Partygains one point, reaching 11.5%. However, in a scenario whereGabriel Attalrepresented the centrist bloc, the Social Democrat would rise to 14% on par with Melenchon and the former Macronist prime minister would be in fourth place with 12%.
The other candidates
If there were instead of GlucksmannFrançois Hollandeas a social democratic candidate, projections would give him between 7.5% and 8%, while the current socialist leader,Olivier Faureit would stop at 3.5%.Bruno Retailleauchairman of the Conservative PartyThe Republicansis credited with between 6% and 9.5% of the votes, depending on the scenario.Eric Zemmourhead of the radical right ofReconqueteis given at around 4%, while she is the Green candidate,Marine Tondelierthat the communist candidate,Fabien Rousselare between 3% and 4%. The mayor of Cannes,David Lisnarda candidate with a liberal program, received between 3% and 3.5% of the votes.
The second round scenarios
In the second round,Marine Le Penis assumed to be successful in all scenarios. The right-wing leader is expected to get 52.5% (+0.5 points compared to July) against Philippe, 57% (+3 points) against Attal and 69.5% (+2 points) against Melenchon. The only scenario in which Le Pen’s support appears to be falling compared to the previous edition of the poll is a challenge with Glucksmann, where she would win with 57%, a decrease of 1.5 points compared to July.
The details of the survey
The survey was conducted online from August 26 to 28 on a sample of 1,378 people. The margin of error is between 1.1 and 3.1 percentage points.