Presidential elections in France, Marine Le Pen remains at the top of the polls

Marine Le Penremains clearly ahead in voting intentions for the first round ofFrench presidential electionswhile behind himJean-Luc Melenchonis losing ground, to the benefit ofEdward Philippe e Raphael Glucksmann. This is what emerges from a survey byBigmade forBfmtv e The Tribune.

According to the survey, the candidate ofNational Gatheringis in the lead with 34%-35.5% of the preferences of those interviewed. Melenchon, leader of the radical left ofInsoumise Francehowever, does not appear to be maintaining its momentum. In a scenario with Philippe as the sole candidate of the centrist bloc, Melenchon would stand at 14% (two points less than in July), while the former prime minister would reach 17% (+0.5 points) and go to the run-off. In fourth place, Raphael Glucksmann, who recently announced his candidacy through the primaries organized with theSocialist Partygains one point, reaching 11.5%. However, in a scenario whereGabriel Attalrepresented the centrist bloc, the Social Democrat would rise to 14% on par with Melenchon and the former Macronist prime minister would be in fourth place with 12%.

The other candidates

If there were instead of GlucksmannFrançois Hollandeas a social democratic candidate, projections would give him between 7.5% and 8%, while the current socialist leader,Olivier Faureit would stop at 3.5%.Bruno Retailleauchairman of the Conservative PartyThe Republicansis credited with between 6% and 9.5% of the votes, depending on the scenario.Eric Zemmourhead of the radical right ofReconqueteis given at around 4%, while she is the Green candidate,Marine Tondelierthat the communist candidate,Fabien Rousselare between 3% and 4%. The mayor of Cannes,David Lisnarda candidate with a liberal program, received between 3% and 3.5% of the votes.

The second round scenarios

In the second round,Marine Le Penis assumed to be successful in all scenarios. The right-wing leader is expected to get 52.5% (+0.5 points compared to July) against Philippe, 57% (+3 points) against Attal and 69.5% (+2 points) against Melenchon. The only scenario in which Le Pen’s support appears to be falling compared to the previous edition of the poll is a challenge with Glucksmann, where she would win with 57%, a decrease of 1.5 points compared to July.

The details of the survey

The survey was conducted online from August 26 to 28 on a sample of 1,378 people. The margin of error is between 1.1 and 3.1 percentage points.