Confusion and strategy: what does it mean for Iran to raise the threat of its secret nuclear program again

The clashes between both countries – greatest enemies for more than four decades – reached a new level after Iran launched an attack with missiles and drones against Israel last Saturday in retaliation for the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria), on April 1, in which seven members of the Revolutionary Guard died.

Israel promised to respond to the attack, something that occurred early this Friday the 19th, a senior US official confirmed to ABC News. Iran’s state television reported “loud explosions” heard near the city of Isfahan, in the center of the country, and the Mehr press agency reported the suspension for a few hours of flights over Tehran and other cities. In addition, the official Irna news agency reported that authorities had activated their air defense systems in several cities in the country.

Even before the Israeli response, all alarms went off on Thursday the 18th when Iran He stated that he could review his nuclear doctrine and policy if the Hebrew country threatened to attack its atomic centers.

Until now, Iranian nuclear doctrine dictated an exclusively civilian use of nuclear energy. But the Islamic Republic warned that could change.

Ahmad Haghtalab, commander of the Revolutionary Guard responsible for safeguarding Iranian atomic facilities, warned that Tehran will attack Israeli nuclear facilities in retaliation for a possible similar attack by Israel, the Mehr agency reported.

Tehran closed its nuclear facilities last Sunday “for security reasons” in the face of possible Israeli retaliation after the Iranian attack over the weekend, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported at the time.

The international analyst Francesco Tucci considers that Iran will continue to use the nuclear threat more and more frequently now that tensions are at their highest with Israel, which is a nuclear country.

“The Iranian regime of the Ayatollahs wants nuclear weapons because if it manages to develop these weapons it will have maximum deterrence since it will be able to threaten both Israel and other nuclear powers. This is not the case of the United States because the missiles that Iran wants to develop will not reach it, but it can threaten Europe. Now, it is a fact that the nuclear deterrent would be mainly towards Israel,” he tells El Comercio.

Disquieting opacity

The Iranian atomic program has been worrying the West for many years, which has often criticized its opacity. Although a nuclear agreement (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 with six major powers in order to greatly limit their activities, the agreement collapsed when the United States, under the presidency of Donald Trump, withdrew from the pact.

Since then, analysts point out that Iran’s nuclear program has made great progress. However, the Persian nation does not yet have nuclear weapons. According to the most recent IAEA report, issued in February in Vienna, Iran produces highly enriched uranium up to 60%, a material that has hardly any civil uses, but does have military uses.

Although the agreement is largely no longer enforced, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains its inspections and verifications of the Iranian nuclear program.

“From what we know so far it is a threat that has not yet developed. That is, Iran is developing a nuclear capability, but it does not yet possess it, nor does it possess nuclear weapons. Currently it is Israel that possesses nuclear weapons. Not Iran, as far as we know based on the available data,” says Tucci.

The Efe agency points out that to produce a nuclear bomb you need uranium enriched above 90%, something that Iranian technicians seem to already master having perfected enrichment up to 60%.

Tucci points out that the West must assume its responsibility in the growing Iranian nuclear threat because the agreement that collapsed was better than having nothing: “The agreement was not the best, but it allowed international organizations to control the development of Iranian nuclear plants. Now we do not have direct information from civil authorities or all the controls that existed before, so we do not know how much the Iranian program is advancing.”

Sanctions underway

The escalation has drawn condemnation from the international community. The United States and the United Kingdom announced this Thursday the 18th a series of coordinated sanctions against Iran with which they seek to “impose consequences” on the country.

The US sanctions were directed at 16 individuals and two entities that Washington claims are linked to the production of unmanned aerial vehicles.

“Less than a week ago, Iran launched one of the largest missile and drone attacks the world has ever seen against Israel,” said US President Joe Biden.

Iran is the second country in the world that has received the most sanctions from both the US and European nations, according to Efe.

However, Tucci highlights that the impact of this type of measures has not achieved significant changes. “There are many academic studies that show how sanctions do not help much. It is seen with the sanctions against Russia that it has received a very strong package of sanctions, the harshest seen after the Second World War. But the Russian economy has grown,” he points out.

He believes that for sanctions to work, the entire international community should apply them, but this is not the case. “I do not see sanctions as an effective tool to induce different behaviors by government actors. It doesn’t work, it may be a pressure tool, but it can’t be the only one. In addition, Iran relates quite well with China and Russia, so it has some allies that are powerful. “Iran even sells drones to Russia,” he concludes.