Elections and polls show a boom phase of far-right forces in Europe. Although they have recently suffered setbacks – in Poland, for example – the overall picture suggests that in the European elections in June, the ultra constellation, enormously diverse and disunited, will achieve a better result than in 2019. These formations have a chance of winning in the event in Italy, France, the Netherlands, Hungary or Austria and finishing second in Germany, among others. According to the projections of the EuropeElects platform prepared on the basis of polling averages, if the vote were taken today, the group of forces furthest to the right of the European People’s Party (EPP) – with a large Eurosceptic representation – would obtain more than 180 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament.
A result of this style would give the extreme right a significant capacity to influence in a European legislature that will address projects for the transformation of the EU of enormous significance. It can slow down the green transition -analyses Rosa Balfour, director of the Carnegie Europe Center-, as well as community norms on the rule of law, enlargement towards the east and pave the way for even more restrictive policies on immigration. “And Parliament could become even more polarized on critical foreign policy challenges, such as supporting the defense of Ukraine against the Russian invasion and the response to the war between Israel and Hamas and the escalation in the Middle East,” says Balfour, who signs an extensive study on the influence of the radical right in the Union together with Stefan Lehne.
However, any analysis of the space that is usually classified under the single label of far-right must take into account the considerable differences that, along with the harmony, are detected between the parties that are part of it.
These divergences affect some of the most important issues on the political agenda. Regarding Russia, some – such as the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) or Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s party – are in favor of very firm positions, while others (such as the French Marine Le Pen, the Italian Matteo Salvini or the ultra-German party AfD, Alternative for Germany), are much more lukewarm or even inclined towards more pro-Kremlin positions.
Regarding the rights and position of women in society, the Nordic far-right has much more advanced postulates than the ultra-conservatives of southern or eastern Europe, reflects Giovanni Capoccia, professor of comparative politics at the University of Oxford and expert in extremism, in a telephone interview given on this topic at the end of March. Likewise, differences can be detected in fiscal matters and social policies.
Division in the European Parliament
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An emblem of these divergences is their division in the European Parliament. In the current legislature, they have aligned themselves in two groups, the Group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR: Brothers of Italy, PiS, Vox, Swedish Democrats, among others) and that of Identity and Democracy (ID: French National Regrouping, AfD, Italian League, among others). Fidesz, led by the national-populist Viktor Orbán, who became part of the European People’s Party, is not affiliated with any group.
The differences between ID and ECR prevent a large ultra group from forming in the European Parliament. For a large part of the reformists and conservatives, the positions closest to Russia of formations in ID eliminate this possibility, as pointed out by the MEP of the Brothers of Italy Nicola Procaccini.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission and EPP candidate to repeat the position, has opened the door this week to forms of cooperation with ECR, as desired by broad currents of her group. Her gesture has caused enormous displeasure among the social democrats and the left, and the voices that accuse her of “whitewashing” the extreme right have increased. To some and others.
But even within the ECR itself, different EPP sources have distinguished in several interviews since March, the party of the Czech Prime Minister, Petr Fiala – which the Popular Party has come to court to join their group – is not the same as the French Reconquista, founded by Éric Zemmour, one of the great disseminators of the “great replacement” conspiracy theory. And more: there is a great distance between the radically anti-abortion positions of PiS, and a much more liberal vision of the matter on the part of groups such as the Sweden Democrats.
Fight between Le Pen and AfD
There are also severe differences – and turbulence – within ID, as shown by recent tensions between two of its star members: Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party and Alternative for Germany (AfD). The alliance with the German partner, more radical in some points, complicates Le Pen’s effort to present an image of moderation.
When Le Pen and her party president and European candidate Jordan Bardella had lunch on February 20 in Paris with AfD co-president Alice Weidel, the French opted for discretion. Weidel, on the other hand, made the meeting public.
Bardella later explained on the BFMTV network that at lunch, he and Le Pen expressed to Weidel their “disagreement regarding this measure that consists of withdrawing nationality from people who have acquired it, based on this or that origin or religious affiliation.” . Revelations in Germany about the internal plans of the extreme right in this country to expel emigrants en masse have bothered their French counterparts, who consider them too radical.
Of course, these parties have clear unifying political and rhetorical elements. “I believe that the great common denominators are nationalism and the immigration issue,” says Capoccia.
Ignacio Molina, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid, adds another: “The law and order discourse, largely linked to immigration, with the attempt to associate insecurity and immigration.”
In many cases, attempts at cooperation or at projecting an image of a common movement are detected, including with similar forces on the other side of the Atlantic, such as Trump or Milei.
But, as the Le Pen-AfD struggle shows, even in these common denominators the concrete conjugation of policies differs based on multiple factors, from being in power (or close to conquering it) or being far from it, to the dominant values in the society whose votes they seek.
“Generally, these parties adapt flexibly to the problems of the society in which they operate and try to fight from positions that are not losers from the beginning,” observes Capoccia. “Thus, we see that the position of the Sweden Democrats on women’s rights may resemble that of a left-wing party elsewhere in Europe. On the other hand, where Christian values are deeply rooted, the extreme right takes very conservative positions, connecting the role of women with the idea of the battle of civilizations, with the procreative role, giving birth to more children because then immigrants are not necessary for the economy,” continues the expert.
Molina points out other differential elements, among them that some of these parties have an ultra-liberal matrix and others, however, an important social protection component, and the latter hit much more strongly the key of “welfare state chauvinism.” “Parties like Vox or AfD have at their origin a strong ultra-liberal component, whose commitment is low taxes. Others, however, emphasize the desire to maintain a solid welfare state, and try to stigmatize foreigners who, according to them, take advantage of the system by reducing its effectiveness,” says Molina.
Another important element is adherence to democratic values. Orbán’s Fidesz, or the Polish PiS (from the ECR to which Von der Leyen opens the door) have carried out government actions considered harmful to the quality of the democratic fabric by the European Commission and multiple independent study centers. Brussels has also issued warnings to the Slovak Government for measures such as the dismantling of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. On the other hand, there have been no actions or warnings of the same type regarding the exercise of power by Giorgia Meloni in Italy.