Kyiv started its journey to the EU under air alert

That is about to change: After the new government in Hungary lifted the constant veto against the next steps, they officially started on Monday EU accession talks with Ukraine and Moldovaboth have been candidates for membership since June 2022. For the first time there are talks with a country that is at war. This became clear again a few hours earlier: after an attack by Russia, this was the case Kiev cave monasteryUNESCO World Heritage Site, in flames, it is one of Ukraine’s most significant religious landmarks. Kiev, in turn, used drones again to attack bridges that connect occupied Kherson with Crimea on Monday night.

Although the media is already reporting that Kiev is “on the long finish line to the EU” – the path is by no means certain. The best example is this Türkiyewith which the accession negotiations started in 2005, but are now on ice after the dismantling of the rule of law and the disregard for human rights. They can also benefit from the long wait Western Balkan countries sing a song. In Brussels, EU officials expect Ukraine to join “mid-2030 at the earliest” – and not before the end of the war.

So what happens next? The word negotiations is a bit big; Rather, the EU explains to the candidate countries in discussions what they have to do in order to be admitted to the Union. The countries are working on adapting national law to EU standards. The process is divided into six thematic blocks, called “clusters” – the first deals with topics such as Justice and security. Above all, Ukraine must tackle rampant corruption, for example in the awarding of public contracts: this also includes confidants of President Wolodimir Selenskij accused of having greatly enriched himself.

No to “special status”

Kiev would ideally like to open all clusters in the summer – as a signal to the war-torn population. But even that would not be a sure guarantee of early accession, as one can see Albania sees: The country is already negotiating last “cluster”, but there is no joining date yet.

Despite solidarity with the attacked Ukraine, there is a certain skepticism in many places among EU politicians as well as the populations of the EU countries about early accession to the EU. In one Opinion poll of the European Council on External Relations, respondents in Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands were most positive about joining the EU; Despite the change in government, there is still a tendency towards more rejection in Hungary, but also in Bulgaria, Germany and Austria: According to the survey, 42 percent of those surveyed called Ukraine’s accession to the EU “under the current circumstances” a “bad idea.” Even in Estonia, one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, the public tends to oppose Ukraine’s early admission.

An interim “special status” in the form of participation in EU meetings without voting rights, like the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Ukraine vehemently rejects. The fear of remaining on this “side track” is too great. Zelensky wrote on X on Monday: “Ukraine is doing what is necessary and it is important that the EU also keeps its word.”

However, Zelensky has to devote himself acutely to a more urgent issue: the G7 summit He is seeking the support of the erratic US president and is hoping for promises for further air defense systems. Donald Trumpgiven its war in the Middle East Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia has recently paid little attention, is still seen as a potential mediator – combined with concerns about what concessions he could demand from Kiev.