Record global debt is nearly 353,000 billion USD

The latest report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington (USA) shows that total global debt is currently equivalent to 305% of world GDP, almost stable since 2023. IIF calculates global debt including government debt, businesses, households and the financial sector, in many forms such as bonds and loans.

From 2023 until now, the countries with the strongest debt increases include Norway, Kuwait, China, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, all increasing by more than 30 percentage points of GDP. In terms of trends, debt scale is decreasing in developed economies but increasing steadily in emerging markets.

The first quarter of 2026 is the fifth consecutive quarter of global debt increase, with the level of 4,400 billion USD being the fastest since mid-2025, mainly due to borrowing activities of the US government. During the same period, China’s state-owned enterprises increased their borrowing far faster than the country’s government.

Apart from the two largest economies, debt in developed markets decreased slightly, while emerging markets (excluding China) increased modestly, to a record of 36,800 billion USD, mainly due to government debt.

In the first quarter of the year, demand for US Treasury bonds was stable, while Japanese and European government bonds increased. “This shows that international investors are moving to diversify away from US Treasury bonds,” said Mr. Emre Tiftik, Director of Global Markets and Policy at IIF.

According to him, there is currently “no immediate risk” to the US Treasury bond market worth $30,000 billion. However, long-term forecasts show that the country’s public debt is increasingly following an “unsustainable trajectory”, while the debt ratios of the eurozone and Japan gradually decrease.

Under current policies, the IIF believes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to increase. The country’s corporate bond market is also booming thanks to issuances related to artificial intelligence (AI) and strong foreign capital flows.

In general global opinion, this organization believes that structural pressures such as an aging population, increased defense spending, the need to ensure and diversify energy security, cybersecurity and capital investment related to AI, will push up government and corporate debt of countries in the medium and long term. “Recent conflicts in the Middle East are expected to continue to increase some of these pressures,” Mr. Tiftik said.