Once the first half of the year is over, everything indicates that the Mexican economy as a whole will recover after the low growth experienced in 2025, according to Banamex estimates.
The boost will come from the export sector, which will continue as the engine of economic growth, a recovery in investment levels and a surge in domestic consumption, considered the financial firm.
“This year we would be facing a gradual recovery of domestic demand and the economy as a whole, taking into account that exports will continue to drive growth, although at a slightly lower rate than in 2025 and that private investment could gradually recover as uncertainty eases, despite the possible scenario of annual reviews of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC),” Banamex explained.
When presenting the Review of Mexico’s economic situation for the second quarter of the year, he estimated that consumption will accelerate thanks to the gradual recovery of job creation and wage increases.
He stated that the change in the central bank’s monetary stance and a more expansive fiscal policy compared to 2025, particularly with regard to public investment, will trigger economic activity. In the opinion of the bank’s analysts, for the economy to advance at a greater pace, it is necessary to face several challenges, and one of them is that “macroeconomic stability is maintained in the face of the independence of the central bank, free trade and a floating exchange rate regime that promote moderate inflation and financial stability.” He recalled that “many characteristics place Mexico as a beneficiary of business relocation trends (nearshoring), which continues to be the main upward risk, although this is moderated in the face of the possible scenario of annual reviews of the T-MEC.
Weakened pillars
However, the financial firm argued, some pillars of economic growth have weakened for some years and with this, Mexico’s potential GDP is now lower.
“Restoring confidence is one of the main short-term challenges, as well as stabilizing public debt. There is the intention of fiscal consolidation, so debt levels should be consistent with maintaining the investment grade rating at least until 2027.”
He added that long-term structural challenges persist, such as “improving the governance framework, expanding access to financing, greater and better directed public investment, which alleviates bottlenecks in infrastructure, including restrictions in energy, water, logistics and security that are factors inhibiting private investment, as well as increasing productivity and reducing inequality, informality and poverty.”