Iran expert after new attacks: “Situation is bad”

The youngest Attacks between Iran and Israel mark according to the assessment of Walter Posch no fundamental shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, according to the Iran expert in ZiB2.

Iran was under pressure to act

Posch explained that Tehran was under Expectation pressure confessed to his allies. In the ranks of the Hezbollah and the question was raised among their sympathizers as to why Iran was not intervening. At the same time, Posch spoke of a shift in power within Iran after the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, away from religious decision-makers and towards the generals of the Revolutionary Guard. So that’s one Threshold exceeded For the first time, Iran did not react to an Israeli attack, but actively supported Hezbollah.

According to Posch, Israel can now argue that it is being attacked by Iran via its proxies and is defending itself.

No change in the balance of power

However, little has changed in the regional situation. “In principle, yes nothing changed in the balance of power“, said Posch. None of the sides involved – Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, Houthis or the USA – could go forward or back. There was damage, but “too few human losses Thank God”.

The most recent blows are also no turning pointbut part of a deadlocked exchange of blows. “Neither side can go back now,” emphasized Posch.

Ceasefires are currently nothing more than interruptions. “These are actually ceasefires before things continue,” said Posch. There is a lack of diplomatic solutions and all sides are counting on the opponent to give in first. The starting point for discussions is correspondingly bleak: “So that Situation is bad and at the same time they know that there is no other way. No one can make any progress militarily.”