So the Houthis are leading Riyadh to war

The fragile truce that has reigned in Yemen for over four years between the Houthis – supported by Iran – and the military coalition led by Riyadh could not withstand the shocks to which the region is subjected. Negotiations for a lasting peace agreement had stalled and the Houthis were increasingly frustrated. Saudi officials, for their part, were distracted by other crises and hoped the stalemate would drag on for a while longer. In this explosive context, the war between the United States and Iran was like a spark in a barrel of gasoline. In recent weeks, the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia quickly escalated into a full-scale wareven as Riyadh shows little interest in a new confrontation after the previous bombing campaign turned into a decade-long quagmire that has drained the kingdom’s finances, damaged its reputation and contributed to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis from violence, hunger and disease.

According to officials and diplomats who have dealt with the militia and were quoted by the New York Times, the war-hardened Houthis appear to believe they have little to lose and much to gain from escalating confrontation with Saudi Arabia. They act to help their main ally, Iran, but also to force the kingdom and the international community to make political concessions. “The Houthis have only one solution to every problem in the world: war,” he told the NYT Farea al-Muslimiresearcher specializing in Yemen at the London-based research group Chatham House, “The Saudis solve every problem by trying to flood it with money, while the Houthis solve it by shooting at us.”

Houthi attacks against Riyadh

Over the past week, the Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and some ships in the Red Sea, upsetting global energy markets, while a Saudi-led military coalition has carried out airstrikes in Houthi-controlled territory for the first time in years. “There is real concern that the Yemeni civil war could reignite”said April Alley, who worked on the Yemen peace process at the United Nations and is now a senior research fellow at the Washington Institute. Caught in the middle of the power struggle between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are tens of millions of Yemeni citizens suffering deprivation. For some of them even a return to fighting would be preferable to the current desperation.

The Houthis were a diverse group of Shiite Muslim rebels in Yemen’s mountainous north, with a slogan calling for the death of America and Israel. With Iran’s support, they started a civil war and captured Sana’a in 2014defeating the internationally recognized government. Saudi Arabian authorities were alarmed at the prospect of an Iranian-backed militia on the border. A Saudi-led military coalition has launched a bombing campaign in support of anti-Houthi forces. But the war dragged on for years and Saudi Arabia withdrew following international pressure for its role in worsening the humanitarian crisis.

The rift in Yemen and the failed peace agreement

When the truce was declared in 2022, the Houthis had effectively created a state in northern Yemen. The south is nominally controlled by the internationally recognized government, which is financially and militarily dependent on Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials continue to have the final say on several Yemeni issues. Initially, it seemed that military fatigue and political will on both sides could lead to a lasting peace.

In late 2023, with the help of the United Nations, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis came closer to signing a preliminary peace agreement to outline a long-term political solution. A key element of that agreement was the clause allowing the payment of salaries to Yemeni civil servants residing in Houthi-controlled territories, whose salaries had been suspended during the war. The sum at stake was considerable: between 1 and 2 billion dollars per year. The money was expected to come mainly from Yemeni oil revenues that lie outside Houthi-controlled territory. Before the deal could be finalized, The October 7, 2023 attack, followed by devastating Israeli bombing of Gaza, derailed the peace process. The Houthis announced a military campaign in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, launching missiles and drones at Israel and at ships in the Red Sea. Saudi officials and international diplomats believed that the Houthis had violated the ceasefire, a precondition for the peace process in Yemen, making any further progress impossible.

The Houthis, however, maintained that their ceasefire with Saudi Arabia was still in force and were pushing for the continuation of the peace process, the same sources added. Throughout the war in Gaza, the Houthis avoided attacking Saudi Arabiabut their attacks in the Red Sea raised the ire of countries in the region, and when President Trump began his second term in 2025, he declared the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization and launched a bombing campaign.

In an interview with the New York Times, Mohammed al-Bukhaitia senior Houthi political official, accused Saudi Arabia of “failing to implement any of the provisions of the roadmap, first and foremost the payment of salaries to all state employees.” He said Saudi Arabia was responsible for the current escalation and accused the kingdom of imposing restrictions on air and sea traffic to Yemen, which the Houthis, and many Yemenis in their territory, describe as a blockade. In a social media post on Saturday, the Saudi ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed al-Jabersaid the kingdom is eager to ease tensions and supports efforts for comprehensive peace in Yemen. He accused the Houthis of “insisting on a path of escalation and violence” and blamed them for serving foreign interests that do not benefit the Yemeni people.

The change in strategy of the Houthis

In February, when the United States and Israel went to war with Iran, the Houthis seemed willing to stay on the sidelines. After the failure of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the Houthis’ strategy changed. Some analysts believe this change is due to Iranian pressure for greater involvement. The Houthi intervention serves Iran’s interests, but also the Houthis’ desire to impose a new political reality on Yemen, analysts said. After tensions escalated over the landing of an Iranian plane in Sana’a, the Houthis subsequently declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. Given Yemen’s strategic location on the Red Sea, the Houthis are well positioned to destabilize energy markets. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, usually flows most of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, near Iran, but the war has been forced to divert the flow through the Red Sea.

“The Houthis can smell blood in the water,” Alley said. Then add: “Their goal is to consolidate control over Yemen, gain internal resources and unlimited access to the outside world”. According to analysts, any escalation of the situation could depend on the position of the Trump administration which on July 23, after the attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, threatened “serious military punishment”.