There will be elections in the USA in November. Two old acquaintances are fighting over the presidency. Poll data already suggests a close race.
On November 5th, Americans will elect their president for the next four years. They also redefine the composition of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. The incumbent Joe Biden is running for the Democrats, former President Donald Trump for the Republicans. The candidacies still have to be approved at the national party conventions, but that is a formality. There is currently no clear favorite.
The surveys have little significance at this point, as a lot can still change. What is certain is that the race will be decided in a few states, the “swing states”.
States like Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania tip the scales in the US presidential election. Anyone who can convince a majority of voters here will receive all the electoral votes in the state. It takes 270 votes to become president. In many states it is already relatively certain who will emerge as the winner, but neither Biden nor Trump currently have a clear majority.
Four years ago, Biden won with a clear but not overwhelming majority. This year could be tighter, judging by recent national polls. These are less relevant to the election itself, as the popular majority is not decisive, but they are useful for comparing the mood in the country with that in 2020.
While Biden always had a clear lead of 5 to 10 percentage points over Trump back then, this time the candidates are neck and neck. At the beginning of the year, Trump even had a slight lead.
Biden’s popularity ratings are worse than those of his predecessors at the same point in their presidency. This is also due to his age; at 81, even his own voters consider him to be simply too old to be able to effectively exercise the office of president.
Voters have even more confidence in Trump, who is only four years younger than him, but the ex-president is struggling with numerous legal problems that could affect his election campaign. If he is convicted, many Americans will no longer want to support Trump, polls show.
In addition to the presidency, the seats in the House of Representatives and around a third of the Senate seats will also be reassigned on November 5th. The Democrats have to worry about their Senate majority. According to the “Cook Report,” several seats in which a Democratic incumbent has to run for re-election are considered “toss-ups,” and the chances of winning are distributed roughly like flipping a coin. In addition, the Republicans are likely to secure the seat of the retiring Democrat Joe Manchin in West Virginia.
Even in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the Republicans, no party can be sure of a majority.
Six months before the election, everything is still open. A Republican sweep in which Trump wins the presidential race and his party gains a majority in legislative chambers is just as possible as a second term for Biden, a defense of the Senate and a recapture of the House of Representatives by the Democrats. Opinions about the two candidates have been expressed in many places. The few undecided voters are crucial, and the mobilization of the respective supporters is likely to play a decisive role in the end.