Mexico closed the 2025-26 harvest with a production of 5 million 325 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 11.6 percent compared to the previous cycle, according to official data. The growth is explained by the grinding of 49.6 million tons of cane, 8.4 percent more than the previous cycle, on an industrialized surface of 735 thousand hectares.
According to data from the National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugar Cane, the country is the eighth largest producer in the world and the same place as an exporter; Veracruz is the state in the country that produces the most, with 1.96 million tons, which is equivalent to 36.8 percent of the national total.
However, specialists point out that the problem is that, although there is more cane sweetener, Mexico is not able to sell or consume all of that surplus at the same rate at which it is produced. This has caused inventories to grow and the prices paid for cane to drop, directly affecting farmers’ income.
The National Confederation of Rural Owners (CNPR) points out that the sector faces a complicated outlook because a greater volume of sugar will have to be sent to the world market, where prices are lower than those offered by the United States preferential market, which hits the economic expectations of farmers.
According to calculations by the Agricultural Market Consulting Group (GCMA), for the 2025-26 cycle, around 3.8 million tons of sugar were consumed in the country. As production exceeded that demand, and there were also imports of 42 thousand tons, it was necessary to export 1.33 million tons to prevent the surplus from accumulating even more. However, an inventory of 1.35 million tons remained unsold.
This exported surplus was distributed mainly among three destinations: 188 thousand tons went to the United States, 350 thousand tons left under the IMMEX program, which allows exports without paying taxes when the ingredient is used to manufacture other products that are later exported, and 800 thousand tons were placed in other destinations.
In the domestic market, the price paid per ton of the sweetener at the end of the 2024-25 cycle was 16,100 pesos, 25 percent less than a year before. For the 2025-26 cycle, a starting price of 14 thousand pesos per ton was agreed, which confirms that the trend continues downward, this time by at least 15 percent.
The United States represents an opportunity for Mexico because its own production is not enough to cover what it consumes. For the 2026/27 cycle, it is estimated that that country will produce 8.12 million tons of sugar, but its demand will be 11.40 million, so it will have to import about 3.25 million tons.
Mexico already has a part of these sales assured, given that for the 2026-27 cycle, it has an initial permit to export 576 thousand tons to the United States, of which a first part of 346 thousand tons has already been released.
Selling to the US importer is also more profitable than doing so on the international market. In August, the average US price was 805 dollars per ton, while in the international market it was 355 dollars per ton; that is, less than half.
For the next cycle, GCMA foresees that Mexican production will rise to 5.3 million tons and that exports will reach 1.5 million tons, of which up to 900 thousand would go to the United States. Even with this increase in foreign sales, unsold inventory would remain high, around 1.37 million tons.