El Nino can cause extreme rain globally

Theo National Geographicexperts warn that this year is likely to record the strongest super El Nino and the first measure to test its true strength is the rainy season appearing as early as early June.

El Nino, a phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, changes the flow of moisture in the Earth’s atmosphere, causing drought in some places and heavy rain in others. In the past, El Nino has been associated with weaker monsoons, dry seasons and crop failures. However, this weather pattern can also be unpredictable, leading to less total rainfall but more extreme rain events. Monsoons are large-scale wind systems that change direction seasonally, occurring in winter and summer, when temperature differences between continents and oceans push rain or dry air onto land. Most tropical regions such as West Africa, East Asia, Australia and the southwestern Americas have wet monsoons in the summer.

El Nino occurs when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warms, reshaping atmospheric patterns across the planet. According to Spencer A. Hill, assistant professor at City College, New York, warmer water pulls rain toward that sea, away from other parts of the world.

Theo Zero Carbon Analyticsin India, El Nino often weakens monsoon rains, creating drier conditions. In particular, when an El Nino event occurs after La Nina like today, the number of monsoon rains can be especially low. A review of 132 years of rainfall in India shows that severe droughts in the region always occur during El Nino periods.

In Indonesia, reduced rainfall due to El Nino has been linked to an increase in forest fires and reduced rice yields on the island of Java, where more than 50% of the country’s rice is grown. In the Philippines, El Nino causes average rainfall to decrease and drought conditions to increase, especially from December to May. Water shortages can negatively affect agricultural production in the region, as the 2015-2016 El Nino season caused $327 million in losses.

El Nino appearing in winter will cause wetter conditions in Southern Europe and colder and drier conditions in Northern Europe. The latest forecasts from weather prediction models show that this summer in Europe will be warmer than average. In Australia, El Nino will lead to higher temperatures and the risk of wildfires along with lower rainfall.

In the northern United States and Canada, El Nino brings warmer weather, while in the southern United States and northern Mexico, experts predict cool, wet conditions with increased risk of flooding. El Nino weakens hurricane activity in the Atlantic but strengthens storms in the Pacific. In East Africa, El Nino events often lead to short, wet rains, which can cause flooding. In southern Africa, drier-than-average weather will reduce crop yields.

Scientists emphasize that it is too early to conclude how strong this year’s El Nino event will be. But hotter and drier summers and extreme rains can devastate crops. According to Science.orgIn 1983, a weak monsoon due to El Nino contributed to the heaviest crop failure in modern history. In addition, wildfires, heat waves and health risks due to El Nino could disrupt life in many parts of the world.