Elections in Peru: the keys to a complicated country

The differences between both rivals are significant. Keiko Fujimori, a veteran populist right-wing legislatorhas a consolidated party, Fuerza Popular, which has the largest blocks in both chambers of a Parliament that is possibly the most questioned power in the country due to its enormous opacities. But if he reaches the House of Pizarro, that will be one of his main supports.

His rival, Roberto Sánchez, leads, however, a weak alliance, Together for Peruwith different actors from the left, who go from the center to some extremes. If you end up triumphing, will be forced to negotiate and possibly to reverse many of his promises regarding extensive nationalization of the country’s economy. But that will cause litigation that has already been filed in his alliance that includes 46 legislators and also, possibly, due to the urgent demands of his main electorate: the hardest hit sectors in a country of enormous social inequalities.

The analysts consulted by Clarion observe that the division that exposes the choice has the usefulness of showing the size of the inclusion problem that can no longer be disdained. It would indicate the urgency of an efficient State as a step towards real modernity. In addition, it would force a different configuration of power that would require some important balances, especially in Congress.

That alternative would involve an important figure here: the centrist Jorge Nietosociologist, academic and politician, former Minister of Culture and Minister of Defense during the government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. This leader came in fourth place in the first round with 11% of the votes with his Good Government Party. With current parities, this force made up of professionals appears as the possible balance.

Nieto has 7 seats in the Senate and 18 in Deputies, a total of 25 parliamentarians. The number is key to the parliamentary fabric. Fujimori gathers 22 in the upper house, of 60 members, and 41 in the lower house, of 130. He has the largest blocks, but far from the absolute majority. Sánchez’s coalition, in turn, is the second legislative force with 32 deputies and 14 senators. But, although they go together, it is not necessarily a homogeneous block.

The candidate, supported by provincial leaders, professionals and technicians of the moderate left, aligns the legislators of the coast and Lima, something like half of the bench. The others are part of the two communist parties: the Stalinist PCP of Mariátegui and Patria Roja, the latter linked to the union sectors. Then there are the other partners, leaders of local and social movements from Cusco, Puno, Apurímac and Arequipa, included in the lists of this front as guests.

This design means that Sánchez will have to negotiate inwards with his communist and union wings, with regional leaders and with the most ideologized to keep his alliance alive, which would be pulled by demands and sometimes divergent points of view.

He has already carried out part of this exercise in the last days of the campaign by announcing a very sensitive modification of his government program, which incorporated expressions such as “fiscal stability and macroeconomic stability”. The reference disappeared in the first text that repudiated the current Constitution, which it denounced for “submit the State to the will of foreign contractors.”

Instead, it emphasizes the need to “friendly rules for internal and external investment.” He also withdrew the threat to break the independence of the Central Bank and relieve its president. These modifications, designed to tempt the centrist vote and calm the markets, reportedly generated tensions within their alliance and fueled some skepticism about the vitality of the coalition.

Fujimori, who is clearly pro-market, does not have those problems, although its populist side, certain unpredictability in his management and his problems with justice have generated controversies. For example, it has proposed a universal pension for 15% of Peru’s population—more than 5 million older adults—but without indicating how that expense will be funded. An initiative that would be expected from his rival. The leader is also part of the controversial maneuver of Congress to intervene in the national budget, which was done with a glassy constitutional reform. If Fujimori is the opposition, it will be difficult for him to agree to a change that would take away that tool. And it is not clear whether the rest of the forces that oppose her, even with the center, would have enough power to force her.