What if the collapse in birth rates was the smartphone’s fault?

As governments around the world struggle to find solutions to reverse the collapse of birth ratesnew US studies suggest they have ignored a key culprit: lo smartphone. “Is the iPhone a contraceptive?” a document published by is requested National Bureau of Economic Researchwhich analyzes the reasons why i fertility rates in the United States they decreased by 22% dal 2007.

For a time, experts linked the decline to the 2008 recession, when the global financial system nearly collapsed, throwing millions of people into hardship. But when the economy recovered, there wasn’t one resumption of births. Numerous other reasons have been hypothesized, such as the increased use of contraceptivesincreased female education and rising housing and childcare costs. However, a precise cause has not yet been identified.

The smartphone hypothesis

For this reason, Middlebury College economist Caitlin Myers and his student Ezekiel Hooper they tested the hypothesis that the smartphonewhich appeared with the arrival of the first iPhone in 2007, may have had their share. Until 2011, iPhones were available through a single US mobile carrier, AT&T. Therefore, the researchers compared U.S. counties with near-total AT&T coverage to those that had little or none.

The results of the study

They discovered that access all’iPhone it was related to a reduction in births of 4.5-8% in the 15-19 age group and 3.2-6.6% in the 20-24 age group. There were also statistically significant, albeit smaller, decreases among older women. While stressing that iPhones are not the “exclusive cause”, the introduction of the smartphone “played a considerable role in the decline in birth rates in the United States” after 2007.

Behaviors and relationships

“With the rise of modern smartphones, time spent with friends in person andsexual activity have decreased dramatically, in parallel with the increase in consumption of pornographya possible substitute for sex with a partner,” they concluded.

Confirmations on a global scale

Another study, published in May by University of Cincinnati economists Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso Boedo, found similar trends on a global scale since 2007. They analyzed data from World Bank related to the diffusion of smartphones and adolescent fertility rates in 128 countries. They found that the decline in birth rates has accelerated with the spread of smartphones, a phenomenon found in countries with different health, welfare, economic and cultural systems.

Doubts and criticisms

Some academics remain skeptical. For example, in the United States, teen births have been declining since the early 1990s, well before the advent of smartphones. Neither study examines how governments might use their findings.

A global problem

Both rich and poorer countries are faced with the problem of declining prices birth ratesleading to an aging population and a shrinking workforce. According to i CDCfertility rates in the United States are at historic lows, while major Asian economies face the prospect of declining populations in the coming years.

Future policies and challenges

The Chinese government abandoned the one-child policy in 2016, while Japan and South Korea they have invested massively in pro-birth policies, with poor results. The poorest countries, such as those ofSub-Saharan Africastill have high birth rates, but emerging economies such as India and Brazil are also experiencing a rapid decline in fertility.