Senior Iranian: The regime realized that it had to harden its positions vis-à-vis the US

Iran has come to the conclusion that it must harden its positions vis-à-vis the United States and establish pressure levers before it can start meaningful negotiations with President Donald Trump, a senior Iranian official told Reuters news agency. This perception has led Iran to its belligerent rhetoric towards the president in recent days, and to the strengthening of relations with its affiliates and the threat of blocking the Strait of Bab al-Mandab.

According to the report, the Iranian official clarified that the country’s leadership concluded that previous attempts to show flexibility only led to increased pressure from Washington, which pushed it to a more hawkish line. In Tehran, they estimate that Trump interprets the Iranian concessions as weakness, and will only respond to pressure.

A source in the Gulf who spoke to the news agency added that as long as Washington does not accept a new reality, which will give Iran a more significant role in the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict may spread beyond the Gulf region – and blocking the Bab al-Mandab strait and attacking the energy infrastructure of the Gulf countries is also on the agenda.

The same source added that the Iranian approach reflects the belief of the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards that “they can achieve more”. “The Iranians believe that as they expand the war and increase the pressure, Trump will eventually surrender. Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them back to the negotiating table, but they won’t fold,” the Gulf official said.

Instead of a frontal and broad conflict, Iran prefers to increase the pressure on the United States through economic levers, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and is betting that it will be able to deal with the existing situation longer than the Trump administration. According to the report, Iran’s goal is to convince the United States and its allies that containing the crisis will be more expensive than meeting Iran’s demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this evening that “the Egyptians are open”. According to him, “There are negotiations between Oman and Iran, on the passage of ships immediately.” He added: “There is progress, but it is not final, we hope it will happen accordingly.”

The US military has consumed a significant portion of its long-range missile stockpile in the war with Iran, three sources familiar with the data told Reuters. According to the report, the current situation raises concerns about the army’s readiness for future conflicts.

According to Reuters, the military used “almost all” of the surface-to-surface missiles, called ATACMS and PrSM. The extent of the shortage of these missiles has not been reported to date.

Long-range munitions, such as those in short supply, are a significant part of the US military arsenal, and they allow precise strikes from a safe range. US-supplied ATACMS missiles played a central role in the war in Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian forces to attack targets inside Russia. The PrSM is a newer, more advanced generation, designed to replace ATACMS missiles (which have a shorter range).

According to experts, this type of weapon – which costs more than a million dollars per unit – will also be essential in any future conflict with China. The sources declined to say how many units the US has left of each type of ammunition.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the depletion of the American missile inventory could harm the ability of the United States to deter adversaries, including Russia and China. Another source familiar with the matter noted that although the American Central Command – responsible for American forces in the Middle East – has almost finished using the land-based missiles it had before the outbreak of the war, it managed to replenish the stock from other American military sources around the world.

In response to the Reuters publication, the White House issued a statement on behalf of Trump, in which it was said that the US has “far more ammunition than anyone else in the world” and “far more than we need”. “Our defense companies are now producing larger amounts of ammunition than ever before, while at the same time expanding factories and upgrading equipment to record levels,” Trump said.