Ukraine’s and Russia’s attacks on each other’s energy systems and other infrastructure will determine the outcome of the war and the starting points of the peace negotiations in a key way, says the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, who is also responsible for energy issues in the country’s government Denys Shmyhal online magazine In an interview with Politico.
Shmyhal tells the newspaper that Ukraine hopes its drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and the economic sanctions of its allies will force Vladimir Putin to end their war of aggression already this fall. If this does not happen, Ukraine will face another winter, when the Russian armed forces will do everything possible to destroy Ukraine’s energy system.
Last winter, with its bombings, Russia managed to destroy Ukraine’s electricity production and distribution so that the cities suffered from cold and dark streets. According to Šmyhal, Russia will have a new goal in the coming winter.
“Russia’s goal now is to destroy our water reserves. Last winter, they targeted electricity and heating, but despite that, you can manage if you have gas and water in case of power outages,” says Šmyhal.
“It’s hard to survive more than three days without water.”
Actions already started
Ukraine is currently preparing for a new threat by erecting protections for its electricity, water and gas reserves.
In addition, more flexible and smaller systems have been divided into regions, so that it would be more difficult for Russia to damage the infrastructure. For air defense, Ukraine would need more anti-missile Patriot systems, but it will be difficult to get them after the US used up its stockpiles for the war in Iran. The joint production of missiles promised by the US does not according to a recent US statement not about to start before winter.
According to Šmyhal, the battle between the parties to destroy the energy infrastructure is like a protracted boxing match, where the enemy is expected to bow first. The minister admits that the hope that Putin will bend before winter is not likely.
“He is suffering, but he will continue the war until the winter”, Šmyhal estimates, stating that he believes that Ukraine will also endure another winter.
While Ukraine has reportedly taken out of the game up to 40 percent of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity – which is damaging the Russian economy and causing fuel shortages – Russia has “destroyed or damaged more than 80 percent of Ukraine’s energy production,” Shmyhal says.
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