Part of the SpaceX rocket will crash on the moon and create a new crater

Details of the predicted collision

A piece of space metal weighing four tons is currently hurtling towards the moon at a speed of approximately 8,700 kilometers per hour. According to precise calculations, the collision should take place on the western edge of the Moon’s side facing Earth, near Einstein Crater. Although the flash of the impact itself will probably not be visible from Earth because it happens on the sunlit side of the Moon, the consequences will be measurable and potentially visible. The impact took place on the Moon, which is about 384,000 kilometers from the Earth, which means that there is no danger for us on the planet.

Scientists believe that the impact will create a completely new crater, a bowl-shaped depression, whose diameter could be between 20 and 30 meters. During the collision, a cloud of dust and small pieces of rock from the Moon’s surface will be thrown into space. This cloud, known as the ejecta plume, could be visible with powerful telescopes from Earth a few minutes after the impact. Nevertheless, it will certainly not be a sight that most people can see with ordinary binoculars from their backyard.

A scientific opportunity amid growing concern

Although it is an uncontrolled fall, the event is also an example of the potential risks caused by space debris – objects that humans have left in space after completed missions. As more countries and private companies plan missions to the Moon, including the establishment of permanent bases, the lack of space debris disposal regulations is becoming a growing concern. Cislunar space, the area between the Earth and the Moon, is becoming more and more congested with discarded parts of rockets and satellites.

On the other hand, this collision offers scientists a unique opportunity. Since the object’s mass, speed, and trajectory are precisely known, they can use the impact to calibrate and test their models of how craters form. This will help them to understand much better the natural impacts of meteoroids, whose parameters are often unknown. The key role in the observation is played by the larger spacecraft. circles around the Moon. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and South Korea’s Danuri orbiter are expected to take detailed photos of the area before and after the impact. By comparing these images, scientists will be able to analyze the newly formed crater and ejected material, and learn more about how such collisions change the surface of the Moon.

How did the rejected rocket end up on the way to the moon?

This rocket’s upper stage is part of a mission launched on January 15, 2025, which carried two private lunar landers: Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost and Japan’s ispace Resilience. After successfully setting the landers on their path toward the Moon, the rocket stage did not have enough fuel left to perform a controlled reentry maneuver into Earth’s atmosphere or to escape into a stable orbit around the Sun. Instead, it remained in a chaotic, elongated orbit around Earth for more than a year. Over time, the gravitational forces of the Earth and the Moon directed it on a path that inevitably leads to a collision. Experts point out that this collision could have been avoided if the mission had included a plan for the safe disposal of the rocket stage.

History of impact on the moon

This is not the first time that a man-made object has hit the moon, either accidentally or on purpose. In the spring of 2022, a Chinese rocket stage crashed on the far side of the Moon, surprising scientists by creating an unusual double crater. Unlike that event, the upcoming impact will occur on the near side, which opens up the possibility of observing the dust cloud from Earth.

During the famous Apollo program in the 1960s and 1970s, NASA even deliberately directed the larger stages of the powerful Saturn V rockets to hit the Moon. These controlled shocks had a clear scientific purpose: they were used to calibrate the sensitive seismometers that the astronauts left on the surface. The data obtained from these impacts provided valuable information about the internal structure of the Moon. The impending crash of SpaceX’s rocket stage is therefore both a random experiment and a reminder of humanity’s enduring influence on celestial bodies, and prompts an urgent debate about the future management of space activities.